“Yesterday’s problem is today’s risk.”
Calculating risk, the easy way
Create a list of all items.
Estimate the risk of each item and their respective probability of happening.
Formula: 1 – (Avg. probability ^ Number of items).
Example 1:
12 items with a 10% average probability gives a 1 – 0.9^12 = 0.71.
This gives a ~70% probability you will be affected by the risk.